HTF (4h) shows a clear downtrend from the Dec-25 peak near $222 through a series of lower highs and lower lows. Price has been grinding down since mid-Jan-26 from ~$190, with a recent bounce attempt failing at ~$170-172 resistance before rolling back over. LTF (1h) shows the bounce on Mar-16-17 stalled at ~$164-167 resistance, and today's price action with the big volume surge on Mar-18 looks like a dead-cat bounce off the ~$157-158 lows. Current price at ~$166 is now back up into the prior breakdown zone ($165-167). The structure is: breakdown → bounce into resistance → resume down. Resistance sits at $167.5-170 (prior consolidation base, now ceiling). Stop above $170 (breaks the short thesis — above all recent resistance). Target $157.5 (recent swing low, Oct-level support). Options flow is mixed but noteworthy: put premium dominates ($793K bearish vs implied structure), delta imbalance is negative (-$80K), call/put volume ratio 0.71 skews toward puts. Bearish call sells on the 170C (Apr-2, SellToOpen) suggest smart money fading a rally. IV elevated (~43-55% on monthly puts) makes buying puts relatively expensive but spread structure controls cost.

Put Spread: Sell the bounce into $165-167 resistance with a put spread. IV is elevated (~43-45% on April monthlies) so spread reduces premium cost vs outright long put. Target the $157.5 swing low area. 165/155 put spread on Apr-17 expiry gives 30 DTE to play out the next leg down. Max risk defined to debit paid. Breakeven just below current price.