How did oil and airline stocks move as crude passed $100?
Published
Answer · as of
Airline stocks and oil stocks mostly moved in opposite directions as WTI crude futures rose 26.1%, from $82.05 to $103.44, over the 63 sessions from Jul 27 to Oct 23, 2026. Fourteen of the 15 US-listed stocks filed as airlines fell, with a median change of −15.6%, while 13 of 15 integrated oil and refining stocks rose, median +21.4%, and 50 of 61 oil and gas producers rose, median +16.8%.
Within integrated oil and refining, the four largest gains went to refiners: CVR Energy rose 70.7%, Marathon Petroleum 46.4%, Valero 37.5% and Phillips 66 36.3%, ahead of Chevron at 22.7% and Exxon Mobil at 18.4%. United Airlines fell 18.8%, American Airlines 19.0% and Delta 11.4%.
Crude crossed $100 in September and again in October
WTI crude futures first closed above $100 on Sep 10 and peaked at $105.36 on Sep 15. They fell to $89.00 on Oct 7, closed above $100 again on Oct 16 and ended at $103.44 on Oct 23, up 10.1% over the last 21 sessions.
Airline stocks fell a median 15.6%
Fourteen of the 15 stocks filed as airlines fell over the 63 sessions. Of the airlines in the table, JetBlue fell most, 51.7%, and Surf Air Mobility least, 2.5%; Southwest fell 8.0% over the three months but rose 0.5% over the last month. The one riser was SOAR AI, which the SEC files as a nonscheduled air carrier and which closed at $0.25. Two more stocks filed as airlines also fell and are left out of the table because they are not airlines: Starfighters Space (FJET) and the helicopter operator Bristow (VTOL).
| Symbol | Company | 3 months | Last month |
|---|---|---|---|
| JBLU | JetBlue Airways | −51.7% | −39.7% |
| ALGT | Allegiant Travel | −31.7% | −11.9% |
| ALK | Alaska Air Group | −27.6% | −14.1% |
| ULCC | Frontier Group | −19.0% | −15.6% |
| AAL | American Airlines Group | −19.0% | −9.3% |
| UAL | United Airlines Holdings | −18.8% | −11.9% |
| SKYW | SkyWest | −15.6% | −7.6% |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines | −11.4% | −7.2% |
| LUV | Southwest Airlines | −8.0% | +0.5% |
| RJET | Republic Airways | −5.4% | −9.5% |
| CPA | Copa Holdings | −5.1% | +2.0% |
| SRFM | Surf Air Mobility | −2.5% | −15.9% |
| SOAR | SOAR AI | +82.7% | +35.5% |
Four refiners led the oil and refining group
Every oil company in the group rose; the two decliners, Valvoline, which runs car-care stores, and Icahn Enterprises, a holding company, are not oil companies, and neither is Quaker Chemical, an industrial-fluids maker that rose 2.8%. The four largest gains went to refiners: CVR Energy, Marathon Petroleum, Valero and Phillips 66. Chevron and Exxon Mobil, which both produce and refine, rose 22.7% and 18.4%; ConocoPhillips, mainly a producer, is in this group because it files under the SEC's petroleum refining code. Other refiners rose less than Chevron: PBF Energy 21.4%, Calumet 19.4% and Delek US 15.5%.
| Symbol | Company | 3 months | Last month |
|---|---|---|---|
| CVI | CVR Energy | +70.7% | +13.4% |
| MPC | Marathon Petroleum | +46.4% | +17.0% |
| VLO | Valero Energy | +37.5% | +9.5% |
| PSX | Phillips 66 | +36.3% | +10.7% |
| COP | ConocoPhillips | +30.5% | +16.6% |
| SU | Suncor Energy | +24.0% | +15.6% |
| CVX | Chevron | +22.7% | +13.4% |
| PBF | PBF Energy | +21.4% | +5.9% |
| CLMT | Calumet | +19.4% | −8.4% |
| XOM | Exxon Mobil | +18.4% | +13.0% |
| DK | Delek US Holdings | +15.5% | +11.2% |
| IMO | Imperial Oil | +7.2% | +8.2% |
| KWR | Quaker Chemical | +2.8% | −2.2% |
| VVV | Valvoline | −20.0% | +11.6% |
| IEP | Icahn Enterprises | −25.4% | −17.1% |
Producers rose less than the oil and refining group
Among oil and gas exploration and production stocks, 50 of 61 rose and the median gain was 16.8%, less than the oil and refining group's 21.4%. Among producers averaging at least $100M of daily trading, APA rose most, 49.4%. Some producers fell, among them the natural gas producer BKV, 17.7%, Sable Offshore, 25.9%, and Battalion Oil, 41.7%. Others among the decliners are filed under crude petroleum and natural gas, SEC industry code 1311, without producing oil themselves: Hess Midstream runs pipelines and gathering systems, Atlas Energy Solutions sells frac sand, and Par Pacific, which fell 1.9%, is a refiner.
Airlines did most of their falling in the last month
Over the last 21 sessions, from Sep 24, the median airline fell 9.5%, against −15.6% over three months; crude rose 10.1% in that month. The median integrated oil and refining stock rose 11.2% in the month against 21.4% over three months, and the median producer 7.0% against 16.8%.
Counting only stocks that moved the same way over both windows, 8 of 13 airlines, 7 of 12 integrated and refining stocks and 33 of 58 producers did more than half of their 3-month percentage change in the last month.
Ask it yourself
Using Monk.trade, compare airline stocks with integrated oil, refining and oil and gas producer stocks over the last 63 sessions and the last 21, and show WTI crude futures over the same window.
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The MonkQL Monk.trade ran
from universe all on daily include type == "common" and (industry == "Airlines" or industry == "Integrated Oil & Refining" or industry == "Oil & Gas Exploration & Production") show industry, close, 100 * (close / close[63] - 1) as three_months, 100 * (close / close[21] - 1) as last_month sort three_months desc take 100
Run 01a177e3-e8fd-7a80-8d0c-a8a365955641
| Group | Stocks | Rose | Fell | Median change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airlines | 15 | 1 | 14 | −15.6% |
| Integrated oil and refining | 15 | 13 | 2 | +21.4% |
| Oil and gas producers | 61 | 50 | 11 | +16.8% |
| WTI crude futures | — | — | — | +26.1% |
Method
Groups are Monk.trade's industries, which come from each company's SEC industry (SIC) code, limited to active common stocks: at least $20M of close times volume over the last 20 sessions, or $1M on the newest.
Changes compare split-adjusted closes on Oct 23, 2026 with closes 63 sessions earlier (Jul 27) and 21 sessions earlier (Sep 24); dividends are not included.
Every stock figure was computed twice, with two independent formulas, and the two agreed for all 91 stocks.
Limits
- Moving together is not cause and effect: this compares price changes over the same window and does not establish why any stock moved.
- SEC industry codes misfile some companies, and counts and medians include them as filed: Valvoline, Icahn Enterprises and Quaker Chemical in integrated oil and refining; Starfighters Space (FJET) and the helicopter operator Bristow (VTOL) among airlines; and Hess Midstream, Atlas Energy Solutions, the refiner Par Pacific and the integrated companies TotalEnergies and Cenovus among producers.
- Crude figures use the close of each UTC weekday, not the exchange settlement price.
- These are closing prices on Oct 23, 2026; later sessions change every figure.
Sources
Research only. Not investment advice. Read the risk notice